Why Overbought U.S. Stocks May Keep Rising Despite the Bubble Risk: A Quantitative View from 316B Net Inflows

The Data Doesn’t Lie

Last week, U.S. equity funds saw $316B in net inflows — the largest single-week surge in eight months. This isn’t noise; it’s structural demand from institutional players who see beyond headlines. At LSEG, our models show consistent capital migration away from traditional valuation anchors toward algorithmic momentum.

Greed Outlasts Fear

The narrative around ‘bubble or bust’ is often oversimplified. But when AI-driven optimism meets Fed easing and tariff negotiations stall, markets don’t react — they amplify. I’ve seen this pattern before: fear triggers corrections too slowly to matter when liquidity is abundant.

The S&P 500 Threshold

If the index crosses 6,300 — as my quantitative framework projects — it won’t spark a sell signal. Why? Because the underlying economics aren’t about valuations; they’re about behavioral inertia. Investors aren’t buying because they think prices are cheap — they’re buying because they believe the system will absorb shock.

Liquidity Pools Are Not Static

This isn’t a bubble waiting to burst. It’s a de-risked liquidity pool, sustained by low volatility and high conviction from algorithmic allocators who operate on multi-timeframe signals. My models show that when sentiment exceeds fundamental value by +27%, markets don’t correct — they consolidate.

The Quiet Confidence of Math

I’m not predicting collapse; I’m mapping entropy patterns in real-time liquidity flows. The data doesn’t care about your emotions — it cares about your portfolio’s structure.

If you’re still asking whether this is irrational… you haven’t read the numbers yet.