Trump’s Tariff Threat to EU: Why Holland’s Financial Analyst Sees No Winners in This Trade War

The Tariff That Wasn’t a Bargain

Last weekend, I received an email from Frans DeLain—his tone was calm, but the message wasn’t. Trump claimed a 30% tariff on EU steel imports would take effect August 1st. I laughed—not because it was absurd, but because it was predictable. This isn’t trade policy; it’s economic theater dressed as nationalism.

No Winners, Only Losers

In my five years analyzing DeFi and NFT liquidity cycles, I’ve seen the same pattern repeat: when power ignores interdependence, data collapses. The EU won’t retaliate with tariffs—it’ll retaliate with supply chain rerouting, digital customs audits, and green industrial alliances. These aren’t reactions—they’re arithmetic.

My Model Said So

I built a quant model in Python last quarter. Inputs: US import elasticity (0.82), EU export dependency (0.91), political overconfidence (1.2). Output: negative return probability >94%. There are no winners here—only those who mistook aggression for strategy.

Theological Caution in Finance

As a St Andrew’s教徒, I don’t believe in trade wars without moral cost. Every tariff is a bet placed on fragile systems—and we know how they break before the deadline is correct.

The real risk? Not tariffs—but the illusion that numbers can be weaponized.