The $4B Question Nobody Wants to Ask

Let’s address the elephant in the room - or should I say, the degen in the Discord. When news broke that meme coin factory Pump.fun seeks funding at a $4 billion valuation, even my most bullish crypto colleagues spat out their Earl Grey. But as any CFA holder knows (while secretly envying memecoins’ ROI), valuation is about future cash flows, not just current hype cycles.

By the Numbers: 8x P/S Isn’t Crazy

Running the tape:

• 30-day revenue: ~\(416M annualized (\)5B run rate)
• Valuation multiple: 8x P/S ratio

Compared to:

• Coinbase at 15x
• Traditional fintechs averaging 5-7x

Not outrageous - until you see the volatility. During January’s meme mania, Pump.fun hit $10M+ daily revenues (3-4x current levels). The real debate isn’t whether peak Pump.fun deserved this valuation, but whether today’s quieter version does.

Platform Plays: From Memes to Media Empire?

The plot thickens with Pump.fun’s pivot toward becoming “Crypto MTV” - complete with:

1. Influencer collabs: Controversial stars like Gainzy (the chain-smoking Vitalik critic) now drive engagement
2. Native tokens: \(HOUSE and viral sensation \)chillhouse creating ecosystem stickiness
3. Live streaming: 100M creator fund attracting Web2-style talent

KOL @thecryptoskanda argues this transforms Pump.fun from mere launchpad to attention economy player - capturing Gen Z’s nanosecond attention spans better than legacy platforms.

Bear Market Blues or Structural Shift?

The existential question: Is the meme coin slowdown cyclical or terminal? Some observations:

• Graduation rates: New token success percentages halved since January (1.6% → 0.8%)
• Volume drop: Daily new coins created down 50%
• Narrative fatigue: Same recycled memes hitting diminishing returns

Yet counterintuitively, this lull might strengthen Pump.fun’s hand. As traditional crypto media struggles, their organic “degens-as-journalists” ecosystem keeps humming along.

Valuation Verdict: Schrödinger’s Meme Machine

Here’s my take: ✅ Bull case: Platform demonstrates rare ability to evolve beyond initial product (see: Twitch-like community building) ❌ Bear case: Still overly reliant on speculative trading volume that may not return ⚖️ Fair value: Probably between $2-3B currently - but with optionality if they nail the media pivot

As one degenerately wise anon put it: “Blur didn’t kill NFTs, NFTs were already dying.” Similarly, if memecoins fade, it won’t be Pump.fun’s fault - but their survival may depend on becoming less of a casino and more of a cultural hub.

Thoughts on chillhouse?