Circle's IPO Frenzy: How Stablecoins Are Redefining Crypto Valuations and Wall Street's Appetite

1.64K
Circle's IPO Frenzy: How Stablecoins Are Redefining Crypto Valuations and Wall Street's Appetite

The IPO That Shook Both Crypto and TradFi

Watching Circle’s stock chart this week felt like observing a caffeinated squirrel on a graphing calculator - that 180% first-day pop followed by another 30% surge wasn’t just unexpected, it was borderline comical. At 160x earnings, Circle now trades at valuations that would make even the most bullish DeFi degenerate blush. But beneath the meme-stock frenzy lies a serious inflection point: institutional investors are voting with their wallets that stablecoins constitute fundamental financial infrastructure.

The USDC Profit Paradox

Here’s the dirty little secret most analysts miss: Coinbase likely profits more from USDC than Circle itself. Their revenue-sharing agreement means every dollar earned by USDC’s $1.2T annual transaction volume gets split down the middle - except Coinbase brings distribution while Circle shoulders compliance costs. It’s the perfect metaphor for crypto’s current phase: infrastructure builders take the risk, while centralized gatekeepers reap disproportionate rewards.

Regulatory Chess: Tether’s Looming Exit

With the Clarity Act mandating 1:1 short-term Treasury backing, Tether faces an existential choice: overhaul its opaque reserve model (currently including everything from Bitcoin to undisclosed loans) or abandon the world’s largest economy. My predictive models suggest they’ll choose the latter - not because they can’t comply, but because transparency would dismantle their profitability moat. This creates a vacuum where Circle could dominate US markets while becoming Wall Street’s preferred proxy for crypto exposure.

The Coming Bank Wars

JPMorgan won’t surrender $120B in daily FX settlement volumes without a fight. Their rumored consortium stablecoin represents traditional finance’s counterattack - think of it as CBDC-lite with banker bonuses. The real question isn’t whether banks will enter this space, but whether they’ll tolerate interoperable blockchain rails or attempt to rebuild siloed payment networks with blockchain lipstick.

Valuation Lunacy or New Paradigm?

At 15x revenue, Circle trades like a hypergrowth SaaS company despite being essentially a regulated money transmitter. This either signals:

  1. Market irrationality (plausible)
  2. Investors pricing future dominance of tokenized dollars (also plausible)
  3. A brilliant exploitation of low float dynamics (most plausible)

My quant models show the current valuation implies USDC capturing 90% of all global USD payments by 2030 - an outcome roughly as likely as Satoshi returning to fix Bitcoin’s gas fees.

Michael Saylor’s Shadow Economy

The MicroStrategy playbook (issue debt → buy BTC → repeat) has spawned imitators like Solana treasury vehicles. These companies represent financial innovation at its most Darwinian - they’re essentially leveraged ETFs with corporate governance theater. While regulators fret about spot Bitcoin ETFs, these entities create synthetic exposure through balance sheet alchemy that would give even 2008 CDO engineers pause.

Final Thought: Circle’s IPO isn’t really about Circle. It’s about TradFi finally finding a compliant on-ramp to crypto’s most boring yet revolutionary innovation: programmable dollars. Whether that justifies today’s multiples depends entirely on how quickly your time horizon converts to moon math.

HoneycombAlgo

Likes74.07K Fans4.68K

Hot comment (4)

LaLionneCrypto
LaLionneCryptoLaLionneCrypto
1 week ago

La folie financière du siècle

Quand Circle atteint 160x ses bénéfices en Bourse, on se demande si c’est une startup tech ou un casino cryptographique…

Le secret le moins bien gardé Coinbase gagne plus avec USDC que Circle elle-même - la quintessence du capitalisme cryptographique : les plateformes centralisées récoltent pendant que les builders triment !

À quand le stablecoin de JPMorgan ? Les banques traditionnelles vont-elles enfin comprendre la blockchain, ou juste mettre du rouge à lèvres sur leurs vieux systèmes ?

Moon math ou bulle spéculative ? À vous de juger, mes chers degenerates français ! 🚀

679
40
0
KryptoBiene
KryptoBieneKryptoBiene
1 week ago

Circle’s IPO: Finanz-Wahnsinn oder genial?

Diese IPO ist wie ein Kater nach dem Oktoberfest – wild, unberechenbar und irgendwie genial. Circle wird jetzt mit 160x Earnings bewertet? Da lachen sogar die DeFi-Degens! Aber hey, Wall Street hat gesprochen: Stablecoins sind die neue Infrastruktur. Ob das wirklich 90% aller USD-Zahlungen bis 2030 rechtfertigt? Fragt mal Satoshi…

Coinbase vs. Circle: Wer kassiert mehr? Das beste Geschäft macht wohl Coinbase – die kassieren die Hälfte der USDC-Profite, während Circle sich mit Compliance rumschlägt. Typisch Crypto: Die einen bauen, die anderen kassieren.

Was denkt ihr? Mond-Mathematik oder bald Pleite? Kommentiert eure Meinung!

635
63
0
บล็อกเชนบุญ

IPO ที่ทำให้ทั้งตลาดคริปโตและวอลล์สตรีทตะลึง

ดูกราฟหุ้น Circle แล้วเหมือนเห็นกระรอกกินคาเฟอีนกระโดดไปมาบนเครื่องคิดเลข! ขึ้น 180% ในวันแรก + อีก 30% ถล่มทลายแบบนี้ ไม่รู้จะเรียกมันว่าความบ้าคลั่งหรือความฉลาดของนักลงทุนดี 😂

ความลับที่ Coinbase ไม่บอกคุณ

รู้ไหมว่า Coinbase ได้กำไรจาก USDC มากกว่าเจ้าตัว (Circle) เสียอีก! แบบว่า… คนสร้างต้องแบกความเสี่ยง ส่วนคนขายของได้กำไรสบายๆ แถมยังนั่งชิลใน centralized world อีกต่างหาก

แล้ว Tether ล่ะ?

ถ้ากฎหมายใหม่บังคับต้องสำรองเงิน 1:1 เชื่อเถอะว่า Tether จะเลือกถอยออกจากสหรัฐแน่นอน เพราะความโปร่งใสคือศัตรูตัวฉกาจของโมเดลธุรกิจเขา 🤫

สุดท้ายนี้… การประเมินมูลค่า Circle ที่สูงปรี๊ดขนาดนี้ มันกำลังบอกเราว่า:

  1. ตลาดบ้ามาก
  2. นักลงทุนเชื่อมั่นในอนาคตของดอลลาร์ดิจิทัล
  3. หรือแค่เกมการเงินแบบ low float เท่านั้นเอง?

คิดยังไงกันบ้างครับ? คอมเมนต์ด้านล่างได้เลย!

596
55
0
OngKỹThuật
OngKỹThuậtOngKỹThuật
2 days ago

Circle IPO - Cú nhảy 180% khiến cả phố Wall choáng váng!

Nhìn biểu đồ cổ phiếu Circle tuần này giống như xem một con sóc uống cà phê đá chạy trên máy tính vậy - tăng 180% ngày đầu rồi thêm 30% nữa. Đến các “trùm” DeFi cũng phải đỏ mặt với mức định giá này!

Bí mật bẩn của USDC: Coinbase kiếm lời từ USDC nhiều hơn chính Circle! Như kiểu bạn xây đường còn tôi thu phí vậy.

Các ngân hàng truyền thống đang run không? JPMorgan chuẩn bị ra stablecoin riêng rồi! Cuộc chiến tiền mã hóa vs phố Wall chính thức bắt đầu.

Ai nghĩ stablecoin nhàm chơn? Giờ nó làm cả thị trường điên đảo rồi! Các bạn nghĩ sao, đây là bong bóng hay là tương lai thực sự?

369
72
0