Bitcoin’s Bull Run May End in 2–3 Months: A Data-Driven Warning from a London Quant Analyst

The Clock Is Ticking

I’ve spent five years mapping Bitcoin’s on-chain behavior—not as a trader, but as a mathematician who reads entropy in hash patterns. My models, built on post-2020 cycle structures, show one thing clearly: this bull run has ~60 days left before exhaustion. October 2024 is not a guess—it’s the convergence of miner revenue decay and M2 supply elasticity.

Why ‘Halving’ Is a Narrative, Not a Law

The market keeps repeating the myth that halvings guarantee bull runs. But history shows no such deterministic pattern after 2016 or 2020. What’s changing is attention: retail investors now chase emotional narratives—‘BTC as global M2’—while ignoring real on-chain indicators like utxo distribution and wallet flow concentration.

The Quiet Math Behind the Hype

I don’t believe in ‘the next moon.’ I believe in probability densities derived from verified ledger data. When whale movements shift above an annual threshold (550 days), volatility drops—not because of fear, but because of calibration. Your portfolio doesn’t survive sentiment; it survives sigma.

The Real Risk Isn’t What You Think

This isn’t about crypto optimism. It’s about cognitive dissonance: people see rallies where there are none—and call them ‘bull markets’ while ignoring decay curves drawn from first-principles economics. You can’t arbitrage emotion with blockchain data—you must measure it.

So What Now?

If you’re still holding BTC past Q4 2024 expecting another leg… you’re not investing—you’re narrating. Listen to the numbers—or get left behind.